Skip to content
  • Looking for Parts? Visit Trane Supply
  • Education Plattform

Select Your Language

Selecting a language changes the language and content on the Trane site.

  • United States English
  • Canada English
  • Argentina Spanish
  • Mexico Spanish
  • Brazil Portuguese Spanish
  • Aruba English
  • Bahamas English
  • Belize English
  • Bermuda English
  • Bolivia Spanish
  • Bonaire English
  • Cayman Islands English
  • Chile Spanish
  • Colombia Spanish
  • Costa Rica Spanish
  • Curacao English
  • Dominican Republic Spanish
  • Ecuador Spanish
  • El Salvador Spanish
  • Grenada English
  • Guadeloupe English
  • Guatemala Spanish
  • Guyana English
  • Haiti English
  • Jamaica English
  • Martinique English
  • Netherland Antilles English
  • Nicaragua Spanish
  • Panama Spanish
  • Paraguay Spanish
  • Peru Spanish
  • Puerto Rico Spanish
  • Saint Lucia English
  • St. Vincent & Grenadines English
  • Suriname English
  • Trinidad & Tobago English
  • Venezuela Spanish
  • Armenia English
  • Austria German
  • Belarus Russian
  • Belgium English
  • Croatia English
  • Czech Republic Czech
  • Denmark English
  • Estonia English
  • Finland English
  • France French
  • Georgia English
  • Germany German
  • Greece Greek
  • Hungary Hungarian
  • Israel English
  • Ireland English
  • Italy Italian
  • Kazakhstan Russian
  • Latvia English
  • Lithuania English
  • The Netherlands Dutch
  • Norway English
  • Poland English
  • Portugal Portuguese
  • Romania English
  • Russia Russian
  • Serbia Russian
  • Slovakia Czech
  • Slovenia English
  • Spain Spanish
  • Sweden English
  • Switzerland French German Italian
  • Turkey Turkish
  • Ukraine English
  • United Kingdom English
  • Azerbaijan Русский
  • Tajikistan Русский
  • Uzbekistan Русский
  • Turkmenistan Русский
  • United Arab Emirates English Arabic
  • Qatar English
  • Kuwait English
  • Egypt English
  • Lebanon English Arabic French
  • Iraq English
  • Jordan English
  • Mainland of China 选择语言
  • Korea, Republic of (South Korea) Korean
  • Vietnam Vietnamese
  • India English
  • Australia English
  • Japan Japanese
  • Guam English
  • Thailand Thai
  • Taiwan Traditional Chinese
  • Hong Kong SAR English
  • Indonesia English
  • Malaysia English
  • Philippines English
  • Singapore English
  • New Zealand English
  • Services
    • Services
    • Energy & Sustainability
      • Energy & Sustainability
      • Energy Monitoring & Analysis
      • Energy Supply
      • Active Energy Management
      • Renewable Energy & Distributed Energy Resources
      • Energy Conservation Measures (energy efficiency)
    • Operate, Maintain & Repair
      • Operate, Maintain & Repair
      • Connectivity & Cloud Services
      • HVAC System Management
      • HVAC System Repair
      • Rental
    • Upgrade & Modernize
      • Upgrade & Modernize
      • Building Systems
      • HVAC System Retrofits
      • HVAC Equipment Upgrades
      • Financing & Energy Services Contracting
      • Indoor Air Quality Assessment
      • Ready for now
  • Products
    • Products
    • VRF & Ductless Solutions
      • VRF & Ductless Solutions
      • N-Gen CITY MULTI VRF
      • P Series
      • Nv Series
      • VRF System Design
    • Chillers
      • Chillers
      • Water-Cooled Chillers
      • Air-Cooled Chillers
      • Cold Gen Scroll Chillers
    • Packaged Units & Split Systems
      • Packaged Units & Split Systems
      • Rooftop Units
      • Split Systems
      • Self-Contained Units
      • Water Source Heat Pumps
      • Dedicated Outdoor Air Units
    • Energy Management & Controls
      • Energy Management & Controls
      • Building Management Systems
      • Building Automation Systems
      • Trane® Air-Fi™ Wireless Systems
      • Controllers
      • Thermostats
      • Accessories
    • Air Handling
      • Air Handling
      • Terminals
      • Sensible-Cooling Terminal Unit
      • VAV (Variable Air Volume) Units
      • Performance Air Handlers
      • Air Handling Accessories & Controls
    • Energy Storage
      • Energy Storage
      • Energy Storage Systems
    • Precision Cooling
      • Precision Cooling
      • Precision Cooling
    • Residential Units
  • Industries
    • Industries
    • Higher Education
    • Indoor Agriculture
    • K-12
    • Data Centers
    • Restaurants
    • Commercial Real Estate
    • Healthcare
    • Local Government
    • Hospitality
      • Hospitality
    • Industrial
  • About
    • About
    • About Us
    • Contact Us
    • Customer Stories
    • Looking for Parts? Visit Trane Supply
    • Education Plattform
    • North America
      • North America

      • United States English
      • Canada English
    • Latin America
      • Latin America

      • Argentina Spanish
      • Mexico Spanish
      • Brazil Portuguese Spanish
      • Aruba English
      • Bahamas English
      • Belize English
      • Bermuda English
      • Bolivia Spanish
      • Bonaire English
      • Cayman Islands English
      • Chile Spanish
      • Colombia Spanish
      • Costa Rica Spanish
      • Curacao English
      • Dominican Republic Spanish
      • Ecuador Spanish
      • El Salvador Spanish
      • Grenada English
      • Guadeloupe English
      • Guatemala Spanish
      • Guyana English
      • Haiti English
      • Jamaica English
      • Martinique English
      • Netherland Antilles English
      • Nicaragua Spanish
      • Panama Spanish
      • Paraguay Spanish
      • Peru Spanish
      • Puerto Rico Spanish
      • Saint Lucia English
      • St. Vincent & Grenadines English
      • Suriname English
      • Trinidad & Tobago English
      • Venezuela Spanish
    • Europe
      • Europe

      • Armenia English
      • Austria German
      • Belarus Russian
      • Belgium English
      • Croatia English
      • Czech Republic Czech
      • Denmark English
      • Estonia English
      • Finland English
      • France French
      • Georgia English
      • Germany German
      • Greece Greek
      • Hungary Hungarian
      • Israel English
      • Ireland English
      • Italy Italian
      • Kazakhstan Russian
      • Latvia English
      • Lithuania English
      • The Netherlands Dutch
      • Norway English
      • Poland English
      • Portugal Portuguese
      • Romania English
      • Russia Russian
      • Serbia Russian
      • Slovakia Czech
      • Slovenia English
      • Spain Spanish
      • Sweden English
      • Switzerland French German Italian
      • Turkey Turkish
      • Ukraine English
      • United Kingdom English
      • Azerbaijan Русский
      • Tajikistan Русский
      • Uzbekistan Русский
      • Turkmenistan Русский
    • Middle East
      • Middle East

      • United Arab Emirates English Arabic
      • Qatar English
      • Kuwait English
      • Egypt English
      • Lebanon English Arabic French
      • Iraq English
      • Jordan English
    • Asia Pacific
      • Asia Pacific

      • Mainland of China 选择语言
      • Korea, Republic of (South Korea) Korean
      • Vietnam Vietnamese
      • India English
      • Australia English
      • Japan Japanese
      • Guam English
      • Thailand Thai
      • Taiwan Traditional Chinese
      • Hong Kong SAR English
      • Indonesia English
      • Malaysia English
      • Philippines English
      • Singapore English
      • New Zealand English
  • Energy & Sustainability
  • Operate, Maintain & Repair
  • Upgrade & Modernize
  • Energy Monitoring & Analysis
    Energy Monitoring & Analysis
  • Energy Supply
    Energy Supply
  • Active Energy Management
    Active Energy Management
  • Renewable Energy & Distributed Energy Resources
    Renewable Energy & Distributed Energy Resources
  • Energy Conservation Measures (energy efficiency)
    Energy Conservation Measures (energy efficiency)
More on Energy & Sustainability
  • Connectivity & Cloud Services
    Connectivity & Cloud Services
  • HVAC System Management
    HVAC System Management
  • HVAC System Repair
    HVAC System Repair
  • Rental
    Rental
More on Operate, Maintain & Repair
  • Building Systems
    Building Systems
  • HVAC System Retrofits
    HVAC System Retrofits
  • HVAC Equipment Upgrades
    HVAC Equipment Upgrades
  • Financing  & Energy Services Contracting
    Financing & Energy Services Contracting
  • Indoor Air Quality Assessment
    Indoor Air Quality Assessment
  • Ready for now.
    Ready for now
More on Upgrade & Modernize
  • VRF & Ductless Solutions
  • Chillers
  • Packaged Units & Split Systems
  • Energy Management & Controls
  • Air Handling
  • Energy Storage
  • Precision Cooling
  • Residential Units
  • N-Gen CITY MULTI VRF
    N-Gen CITY MULTI VRF
  • P Series
    P Series
  • Nv Series
    Nv Series
  • VRF System Design
    VRF System Design
More on VRF & Ductless Solutions
  • Water-Cooled Chillers
    Water-Cooled Chillers
  • Air-Cooled Chillers
    Air-Cooled Chillers
  • Cold Gen Scroll Chiller
    Cold Gen Scroll Chillers
More on Chillers
  • Rooftop Units
    Rooftop Units
  • Split Systems
    Split Systems
  • Self-Contained Units
    Self-Contained Units
  • Water Source Heat Pumps
    Water Source Heat Pumps
  • Dedicated Outdoor Air Units
    Dedicated Outdoor Air Units
More on Packaged Units & Split Systems
  • Building Management Systems
    Building Management Systems
  • Building Automation Systems
    Building Automation Systems
  • Trane® Air-Fi™ Wireless Systems
    Trane® Air-Fi™ Wireless Systems
  • Controllers
    Controllers
  • Thermostats
    Thermostats
  • Accessories
    Accessories
More on Energy Management & Controls
  • Terminal units
    Terminals
  • Sensible-Cooling Terminal Unit
    Sensible-Cooling Terminal Unit
  • VAV Units
    VAV (Variable Air Volume) Units
  • perf-CSAA
    Performance Air Handlers
  • Air Handling Accessories & Controls
    Air Handling Accessories & Controls
More on Air Handling
  • Energy Storage Systems
    Energy Storage Systems
More on Energy Storage
  • Precision Cooling
More on Precision Cooling
Read Customer Story

Creating a comfortable and inviting atmosphere for 1177 West Hastings

Higher Education K-12 Restaurants Healthcare Hospitality Industrial
Indoor Agriculture Data Centers Commercial Real Estate Local Government
Read Blog Post

4 Questions to Determine Your Equipment Upgrade Strategy

About Us Customer Stories
Contact Us

CONTACT A TRANE EXPERT

Puerto Rico Sales & Service Office

Do the Natural Gas Bulls Have a Chance?

By: Beau Walker, Energy Supply Services Department Leader

July 10, 2018

bear and bull natural gas market

Is sub-$3.00 natural gas the new normal?  Can the NYMEX prompt-month contract actually make a rally?  In short, do the bulls have a chance anymore?

This is a question that has been asked to us on more than one occasion, and it’s easy to see why.  Since the beginning of 2016, the NYMEX daily prompt-month settle has averaged $2.796 per MMBtu.  In 2018, the daily settle has eclipsed $3.00 per MMBtu only 16 times, and 15 of those were in the month of January.  The prompt-contract has had a difficult time remaining above the psychologically-important $3.00-per-MMBtu barrier, and $4.00 gas seems like an eternity ago (December 2014 to be exact).  So is there any reason to think the bulls can make a sustained rally in this market?

The simple answer is yes.  The likelihood of it happening is certainly up for debate, and this is by no means a prediction that gas prices will move significantly higher, but there are fundamental factors that could support a move to the upside.  First and foremost, natural gas storage levels are well below their year-ago and 5-year average levels for this time of the year.  During the summer months, natural gas production out-paces demand and excess supply is pumped into storage to be used during the winter months, when gas demand is greater than our production.  Current storage levels are 26 percent below year-ago levels and 20 percent below the 5-year average for this time of year.  This isn’t impacting the current market too much, but that could certainly come later this year as injections turn to withdrawals and winter weather forecasts get released.  

Speaking of weather, this is another fundamental factor that could aid in a move to the upside.  Summer heat increases power generation demand for natural gas, but winter is when weather can really push prices higher.  Natural gas usage is at its highest in the winter months when the fuel is used for heating purposes.  The colder it gets, the higher natural gas demand goes, especially if that cold comes in highly-populated areas such as the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and Upper Midwest.  

Finally, although this one is a bit more of a stretch, production stalling out could add to any bullish momentum.  Currently, rising production is the single most bearish factor for natural gas pricing.  Now over 80.0 Bcf/d, production is at record-high levels and is only expected to continue to rise.  If production stalls out, similar to what happened in the first half of 2017, that flattening could shift production’s impact from bearish to neutral.

Any one of these factors can certainly have an impact, but more than likely a combination of the three would be needed for a sustained rally in gas pricing.  Storage is the most known of the bullish factors, and if the lowered storage levels combine with forecasts for a cold winter in the fall shoulder season, a  move to the upside is certainly possible.  And if production lags its expected growth, that may add to any shift higher.

Again, this is all hypothetical at this time and a run toward $3.50 per MMBtu or even $4.00 gas isn’t being called for.  But there is a case for the bulls to make a bit of a move.  It may be hard to imagine in the current environment, but the NYMEX prompt-month natural gas contract can rally north of $3.00, given the right scenarios. 

Looking For Parts?

Visit Trane Supply

For General and Corporate Questions:

Contact Us
  • About Trane
  • Customer Stories
  • Locate a Sales Office
  • Careers
  • Contact Us
  • Environmental Compliance
  • Quality
  • Ethical Business Conduct
  • Supplier Terms
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Instagram

Privacy Policy  |   Terms of Use

Trane Technologies